Title: The Strategy Of Conflict
(India must work towards some understanding with
Pakistan before the situation on the border spins out of control)
A little over two months into 2018, the violence on
the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) stretch of the India-Pakistan border has
reached a new high:
ü
More than 633 ceasefire violations (CFVs) by
Pakistan = claimed the lives of 12 civilians and 10 soldiers
ü
Pakistan reported 415 CFVs by India = claimed 20
civilian lives (there is no data on Pakistani military casualties)
ü
With the rising violence, casualties and
upcoming elections in both countries, we may have a perfect recipe for
escalation on our hands.
ü
The question we must ask ourselves at this
point, then, is this: is this sheer (completely) mindless violence, or is there
a strategy behind this violence? And if there indeed (वास्तव में) is a strategy, is
it a carefully calibrated(mark with a standard scale) one and what are its
likely outcomes?
Three strategies
Ever since the ceasefire agreement (CFA) of 2003,
New Delhi seems to have followed three broad strategies to deal with the
violence on the J&K border. These three approaches — ‘talks over bullets’,
‘talks and bullets’, and ‘disproportionate bombardment’.
Talks over bullets
The years
immediately after the 2003 CFA witnessed a great deal of calm on the borders
with CFVs dropping to a minimum. This lasted roughly till 2008.
The period from December 2015 to February 2016
hardly witnessed any CFVs, despite the Pathankot Air Force base attack in early
January 2016.
Talks and Bullets
ü The second strategy has been to engage in talks
while proportionately responding to Pakistani provocations. The period from
2010 to 2012 seems to fall in this category.
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While the talks went on, the firing on the
J&K borders did not come to a complete halt.
ü
Disproportionate bombardment
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The third Indian strategy is disproportionate
bombardment of the Pakistani side using high calibre weapons while not showing
any desire for talks, negotiations or concessions.
ü
Its domestic political utility is enormous given
the surprisingly few questions being asked of the government about the rising
civilian and military casualties.
ü
The ‘we kill more than they do’ argument,
combined with the ‘surgical strikes’ narrative, creates a powerful political
discourse laden (loaded) with potential electoral benefits
for the ruling dispensation in New Delhi.
Pakistan’s three-fold strategy
Pakistan seems to adopt a three-fold strategy on
the J&K border informed by its conventional inferiority vis-à-vis India:
ü
Keep the violence on the border carefully
calibrated without upping the ante.
ü
Seek meaningful talks on Kashmir to turn down
the rhetoric on Kashmir and infiltration into J&K;
ü
Propose tactical measures to reduce violence on
the borders such as DGMO talks and reduction in the calibre of weapons, without
giving up its claims and interests in Kashmir.
Title: Credit tangle
(The RBI’s omnibus(सर्वग्राही) ban on a legitimate financing
instrument is not the solution )
ü
A month after the ₹12,800-crore letters of
undertaking (LoUs) fraud at Punjab National Bank came to light, the Reserve
Bank of India has decided to ban such instruments as well as letters of comfort
issued by bankers to businesses for international transactions.
ü
This is the first major step by the central bank
on the issue, apart from asking banks to ensure there are no slip-ups between
their core banking systems and the SWIFT mechanism used for international money
transfers.
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LoUs are among the most popular instruments to
secure overseas credit by importers — known as buyers’ credit in banking
parlance.
ü
It is estimated that overall, bank finance for
imports into India is around $140 billion, of which over 60% is funded through
such buyers’ credit.
Impacts
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This would raise the cost for importers, who
will now need to rely on more expensive instruments such as bank guarantees and
letters of credit.
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The move will also impact the competitiveness of
exporters who import raw materials for their products.
ü
If an individual or some failed systems of a
bank were indeed to blame, why should bona fide transactions suffer?
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Perhaps the RBI could have tightened the norms
for LoUs and introduced safeguards based on the latest learnings. It is still
not too late to do that.
Vocabulary words:
- Sheer (adj and adv) = Complete, genuine (वास्तविक)
- Bombardment (noun) = A continuous attack with bombs (बमबारी)
- Concession (noun) = Compromise (रियायत)
- Caliber (noun) = The level of ability (क्षमता)
- Provocation (noun) = Speech that makes someone angry (उत्तेजना)
- Disproportionate (adj) = Irrelevant, odd (विषम)
- Enormous (adj) = Large (विशाल)
- Utility (noun) = Usefulness (उपयोगिता)
- Laden (adj) = Loaded (लदा हुआ)
- Discourse (noun) = Discussion, conversion (बातचीत)
- Dispensation (noun) = A political, religious system (व्यवस्था)
- Inferiority (noun) = The condition of being lower in status (तुच्छता)
- Infiltration (noun) = The action of entering illegally (घुसपैठ)
- Tactical (adj) = Strategic, calculated (कार्यनीतिक)
